Reflections on Planning and Analysis for Extreme Events

I have three main messages that I wish to present to my fellow participants. I do not claim that these messages are particularly original. My three messages are as follows. First, DO NOT rely exclusively on statistical analysis using available data. Second, DO use judgmental methods to construct models for assessing the probabilities and consequences of extreme events. Third, when uncertainties and consequences are large, the value of further information is often high. Look for and evaluate alternatives to gather intelligence, to carry out research, and to develop technological alternatives to reduce the uncertainty and/or mitigate consequences.